Goldman Sachs has cut its global music industry revenue projections for the next several years.
In the latest edition of its Music in the Air report, the firm revised its 2025 forecast for recorded music revenue from $33.9 billion down to $31.4 billion, a $2.5 billion adjustment that reflects a slower-than-expected year in 2024. Ad-supported streaming growth and recorded music revenue underperformance were identified as the primary factors.
This marks the first time Goldman has lowered its near-term outlook for the industry since it began tracking trends in this format. The report still anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% from 2025 to 2030, but that’s down from the 7.6% figure projected last year. For 2031 to 2035, the forecast slows even further to 4.8% annually.
Publishing revenue projections remain unchanged at $10.7 billion for 2025. The live sector saw a modest upgrade, now expected to reach $38.2 billion, up slightly from the previous $37.7 billion estimate.
Ad-funded streaming, macro shifts, and platform behavior reset expectations
The biggest adjustment comes from the ad-funded streaming segment, which Goldman now pegs at $11.3 billion in 2025, down $2.1 billion from earlier estimates. Subscription-based streaming also dropped slightly, from $33 billion to $31.3 billion. Analysts pointed to a shift in user behavior away from long-form content, limited upside from new platforms, and slower growth in emerging markets as key contributors.
Streaming subscriber growth and average revenue per user are both projected to come in below earlier expectations. The report notes that pricing changes and regional service differentiation may help offset that in the long term, but it won’t reverse the short-term impact.
Even with the downward revisions, Goldman maintains that music remains structurally resilient, with long-term upside still tied to pricing power, licensing expansion, and better alignment between service design and consumption habits.
AI music not yet a revenue concern, but remains under close watch
Goldman addressed the growing presence of AI-generated music in the report but said the current impact on royalties is negligible. Internal checks suggest that AI tracks account for around 0.1% of the royalty pool today. Improvements in content identification and changes in royalty models are helping to contain the issue, at least for now.
That said, AI remains a live variable in future modeling. The firm did not make significant long-term revenue adjustments based on AI output volume but acknowledged the technology as a factor that could either fragment or consolidate revenue depending on how streaming platforms and rights holders manage attribution, licensing, and monetization frameworks going forward.
Will Vance is a professional music producer who has been involved in the industry for the better part of a decade and has been the managing editor at Magnetic Magazine since mid-2022. In that time period, he has published thousands of articles on music production, industry think pieces and educational articles about the music industry. Over the last decade as a professional music producer, Will Vance has also ran multiple successful and highly respected record labels in the industry, including Where The Heart Is Records as well as having launched a new label with a focus on community through Magnetic Magazine. When not running these labels or producing his own music, Vance is likely writing for other top industry sites like Waves or the Hyperbits Masterclass or working on his upcoming book on mindfulness in music production. On the rare chance he's not thinking about music production, he's probably running a game of Dungeons and Dragons with his friends which he has been the dungeon master for for many years.
